Friday, August 17, 2012

Facebook Prediction Part III

On January 2011, I predicted that Facebook would become irrelevant much like of fate of Friendster and MySpace. I gave Facebook two more years of relevancy (i.e., January 2013). First prediction link. Clearly, that first prediction is not going to come true.

I realized my error three months later and wrote about a special variable "K" which extended the life of Facebook, but I did not predict a time period for the end of Facebook's relevancy. Second prediction link.

Thanks to CEO Mark Zuckerberg making Facebook a public company, their demise has been accelerated. The main motivation behind making a company public is the desire to make more money, a.k.a. greed. Now, Zuckerberg must answer to his investors every three months. Investors, who will never be as patient as the owner of a private company. An early lesson one learns in life is that evil defeats itself. Greed is an evil. While greed can give "good" results, the results do not last. Eventually the bubble bursts.

The Facebook stock debutted at $38.00 a share three months ago and the stock is now at $19.05 a share. That is half the value! Imagine investing in Facebook? I cannot believe how grateful I feel for my paltry 0.08% return from my Bank of America Savings account.

As soon as the Facebook stock goes under $10.00 a share, heads will roll. Zuckerberg's head? And with Facebook employees being able to cash out of their stocks in a couple months, the Facebook stock will be even lower than the current value of $19.05 a share. The only way to save Facebook is to make it a private company once more, much like BestBuy is going to do. If Facebook remains a public company, look for them to resemble Yahoo. Yahoo is still valued over a billion dollars, but it is no longer one of the the top tech companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Microsoft). How soon will the Yahoo-fication of Facebook happen? It is coming to you soon, in Christmas of 2013!

Like most good things in life, my predictions about Facebook come as a set of three. This is it, enjoy and do NOT put any money in Facebook stock.

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